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Shifting Baselines in the Perception of Wildland Fire Smoke Risk: A Summer Research Journey

By: Shahriar Md Arifur Rahman




The majority of my working hours this summer are being devoted to investigating how inhabitants of Idaho perceive the risk posed by smoke from wildland fires. As wildfires become more frequent and severe, understanding how people perceive the threat of poor air quality is crucial. Our study aims to model the impact of various factors, including length of residence, previous exposure to harmful air quality indexes, health history, and gender, on these risk perceptions. By delving into these elements, we hope to uncover how different demographics assess the threat of wildfire smoke and identify patterns in their attitudes and awareness.


To achieve this, we designed a comprehensive questionnaire targeting approximately 500 U.S. nationals living or working in Idaho, all aged 18 or older. The questionnaire covered questions regarding perceived threats, knowledge and awareness of smoke risks, and empowerment in terms of self-efficacy and behavioral responses. Additionally, it included questions about socio-cultural conditions such as time of residence, gender, past exposure history, and political affiliation. After thorough testing and expert review, we distributed the survey via the online panel sampling provider, Qualtrics. Within 10-15 days, we had our data, ready for in-depth analysis.





The data analysis phase presented some unique challenges, particularly in gathering historical Particulate Matter (PM2.5) exposure data. We used respondents' zip codes and tenancy information, combined with daily PM data from the EPA, to spatially interpolate average and peak PM levels using ArcGIS Pro. This allowed us to estimate zip code-level PM exposure for each respondent. By comparing their exposure levels across different states and within Idaho, we aimed to measure changes in risk perception based on varying PM exposure. This meticulous process will enable us to provide a comprehensive view of public attitudes toward poor air quality risks and highlight the significant factors influencing these perceptions. By the end of the summer, we aim to complete the manuscript and prepare it for submission to a reputable journal.




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